Tag Archives: Labour

They think it’s all over… And they’re right, it was, like, a week ago

Almost a week has passed since the results for Hampstead & Kilburn came through. It’s taken about this long for the adrenaline to drain from my body and my internal clock to tick tock its way back into shape after pulling an election all-nighter, but I’ve finally processed what has happened, and as the new coalition Cabinet concludes its first formal meeting, I feel ready to reflect on last week’s events.

One undeniable fact is that our part of North West London offered some of the most exciting battles of anywhere in the country. The new constituency of Brent Central was the only seat contested by two standing MPs: Sarah Teather of the Lib Dems and Labour’s Dawn Butler. It was a close run thing, but it was the former who eventually won on the night – or the following morning, to be precise.

In Hampstead & Kilburn, despite all three major parties telling us that it was a two horse race between one or the other of them, it turned out to be the most exciting three-way election extravaganza of them all. Chances are, of course, that you already know the result, but just in case you’ve been visiting relatives on the planet Zorg – and I hear it’s nice this time of year – it was as follows: After some drama involving errant ballot boxes and an excruciating re-count in the wee hours of Friday morning, the nail-bitingly close result was that Glenda Jackson held her seat, defeating Tory challenger Chris Philp by a mere 42 votes. Ed Fordham ended up coming third, less than 900 votes off the pace which, in general election terms, is pretty darned close. So in the end, the bookies, the pundits – even the bloggers! – got it wrong. Alas! How I wish that I’d put a cheeky fiver on Glenda to win; I’d now be sipping mojitos on a beach in Cancun…

The irony is that whilst Glenda pipped Ed and Chris to the post here in Hampstead & Kilburn, it is these two whose parties now govern our green and pleasant land. (Forgive me, by the way, if that doesn’t seem ironic to you, but I attended the Alanis Morissette school of irony, you see).

So congratulations are in order to Glenda Jackson MP, but I’d like to extend these to all the candidates who stood here – except that BNP woman – for leading such vigorous and passionate campaigns. I’m sure this won’t be the last we hear of such historic figures as Chris, Ed, Tamsin, Bea et al. In politics terms they’re all still young’uns (ish), and I for one look forward to seeing what larks they get up to in the future.

Out with the old, in with the new

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Campaign takes the High Road

If you’re lucky enough to have taken a southward stroll down Kilburn High Road recently, or unlucky enough to have been sat in endless traffic heading the same way, then you may well have spotted the latest posters put up by the Conservative party. A few weeks ago, Tory candidate Chris Philp’s cheery face appeared temporarily on several billboards around the postcode, telling us about the various things he’d done for the local community. The latest Conservative posters on the High Road are part of a national campaign featuring a smug, demented-looking Gordon Brown, smiling away as he informs us of his “achievements”, like how he lost £6 billion selling off Britain’s Gold, or how he doubled the tax rate for the poor.

This is typical of the negative-style campaigning rife in the election build-up of all the major parties; a recent Conservative newsletter tells us to look out for tactical smearing by the Lib Dems, and supplies an “official” Lib Dem smear-watch email address for people to write in to. Within days, a leaflet from the Lib Dems themselves came through the letter box with ‘BEWARE!’ written on one side, and the reverse telling us that in fact it’s the Labour party who are conducting a desperate smear campaign. This all basically amounts to the playground classic of ‘I know you are, but what am I?’

In other news, quite a few people have been commenting on the fact that Labour haven’t shown much of a presence on the campaign trail yet. Well, that’s all changing now with the opening of the party’s constituency HQ on Kilburn High Road. The volunteers in the Labour office have been busy stuffing envelopes, which will no doubt be coming soon to a recycling bin near you. And either they’re clinging onto a glorious past, or they have been credit crunched good and proper, as they are currently operating underneath a large ‘Hampstead & Highgate Labour Party’ banner. So last season, darling.

But if all this election talk is getting you down, why not go for drink at one of Kilburn’s many fine pubs? If you do, you might bump into Tamsin Omond and her fellow Commoners, who tonight will be on a pub crawl sing-along, performing their latest To the Commons ditty. I think they may have misunderstood the concept of a political “party”…

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Interview: Chris Philp

Social networking sites are strange and wonderful things. But whereas for you and I they’re a way of keeping in touch with friends, or promoting our truly excellent blogs, for the modern politician, they’re a key campaign feature. They provide a quick and easy way to engage with (potential) constituents, addressing their concerns in an instant, and allow the dissemination of campaign messages around the clock. Facebook it was that helped me set up an interview with Ed Fordham. Then Twitter, somewhat unexpectedly, brought me tidings from one Chris Philp, Conservative PPC for Hampstead & Kilburn. Chris had read the interview with his Lib Dem rival and felt a little aggrieved by some of Ed’s comments.  For balance, he asked, would I like to interview him? For balance, I agreed.

The Wet Fish Cafe on West End Lane played host to our meeting. Chris had called to warn that he would be late. He arrived before I did. Throughout the interview, he sat comfortably on the other side of our small table by the wall, legs crossed and top two buttons undone on his tie-less shirt. We drank tea.

Chris Philp

Chris is a man prepared. All my questions, be they on policy, background, campaigning or anything else, were answered quickly, eloquently and with confidence. He has an impressive grip on facts and figures, which he can pull out to back up any of his points. I often felt, however, that he was drawing on a mental database of stock answers for anticipated questions. I don’t hold this against Chris – if you’re asked similar questions everyday, you’ll give similar answers – but it did give proceedings a more ostensibly on-the-record feel than I would have liked.

Still, Chris spoke openly about his motivations for entering the political sphere; a few years a go now, his father was taken to hospital, and whilst there contracted the MRSA ‘super-virus’. This was his first insight into what he saw as being the Labour government’s (flawed) centralised approach to running public services, and it led to his becoming involved in campaigning, eventually joining the Conservative party and being elected as a councillor for Camden. He was forthwith in revealing that he did not vote Conservative in 1997, as the previous Tory government had not properly funded public services. He now believes, however, that although these  services are better funded than they once were, they are poorly run, and it will take a Conservative government to fix this.

Let’s not forget the reason for the interview: the accusations made against him during my prior interview with his election rival, Ed Fordham. Chris seemed genuinely shocked by Ed’s comments, saying, “I thought [his remarks] were just totally inaccurate, intemperate and uncalled for, and not the kind of thing you would expect from someone who is putting themselves forward for serious office.”

On the electoral figures used by the Lib Dems that put them 474 votes away from victory, Chris said, “the figures that [Ed Fordham] likes quoting are five years old, which he probably forgot to mention, and are based on a sort of theoretical projection. The figures that we look at are recent and are based on real votes. It annoys me, frankly, when the Lib Dems use these very old notional figures, because I don’t think it gives an accurate reflection of the mathematics of the seat.”

During the 'save the Royal Free's stroke unit' campaign

As for the accusation that the Tories campaigned to save a stroke unit at the Royal Free that was never actually under threat, Chris obviously disagrees. He tells me that the Royal Free was recognised as having one of the best emergency stroke units in the country, and that the ‘door-to-needle’ time at both the old facility in Hampstead and the new acute unit at UCLH is exactly the same, at 35 minutes, and thus for most people the journey time to the hospital will now be greater, but for no added benefit. He adds, “the Lib Dems were wrong to fail to support the Royal Free’s emergency stroke unit, and I think the reason that Ed used such intemperate and frankly immature language was he knows that he’s on the wrong side of the issue.”

The one thing that surprised me over the course of the interview was Chris’ assertion that the election in Hampstead & Kilburn would be a two horse race between the Tories and Labour, writing the Lib Dems off entirely – bearing in mind that the new mystery candidate had not yet put up posters in Hampstead. This is despite the Lib Dems being the bookies’ favourites, and despite the re-drawn constituency boundaries potentially favouring them. This is a key marginal seat, of great importance to all the major parties, hence the newsletters, billboards and flyering from all comers. But for Chris there is only one choice: “If you want to get rid of Gordon Brown, then voting Conservative is the only way to do that, both here and nationally.”

The new Hampstead & Kilburn constituency

Chris insists that his campaign is not personal, but some of his comments show a clear understanding that this is a contest, and there’s no use in playing nice: “One thing that Ed probably didn’t find time to mention is that he’s targeting different communities with different messages.” Chris tells me that he is referring to the fact that Lib Dems in Kings Cross have sent out leaflets iterating Nick Clegg’s calls for the disarmament of Israel, a ‘rogue state’, whereas Ed Fordham has distributed leaflets in Hampstead, printed partially in Hebrew, saying that he’s a friend of Israel. Chris appears to challenge Ed, saying, “he hasn’t stood up and said Nick Clegg is wrong on the issue, which if he was serious is what he would do.”

Chris generally comes across as relaxed, but reticent. He doesn’t give as much away as I’d like him to. I’m not saying that (only) because I want more juicy blog-fuel, but because it’s refreshing to hear what someone really feels. Still, he seems to be smart, keen and competent. Also, he’ll be pleased to hear, he comes across as a nice guy. But this is a campaign that neither he nor Ed Fordham can afford to run on personality alone, with Glenda Jackson still in it for Labour, and a yet to be revealed mystery contender joining the race on February 25th.

One thing is certain: things are spicing up on the Hampstead & Kilburn election trail – stay tuned!

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Ask yourself, ‘what would John McCririck do?’

There’s been a fair bit of chatter on this blog recently from Lib Dem and Tory supporters (interestingly, not much Labour presence) as to whose election result-predicting figures are most accurate, who’s most likely to become Hampstead & Kilburn’s next MP, and who can throw a tennis ball the furthest. I may have made up that last one, but it would be fun to find out nevertheless…

Democracy... In action!

At the end of the day, it’ll come down to what box all you lovely voters draw your smiley faces in.* But seeing as everyone likes a good bit of speculation, I thought I’d check out the latest predictions made by the real experts: the bookies. The odds quoted below are specific for the Hampstead & Kilburn constituency.

PaddyPower has the Lib Dems as even money favourites, with the Tories at 2/1, and Labour the outsiders at 5/2.

Ladbrokes ranks the three parties in the same order, but offers better odds on the Lib Dems at 11/10. It matches PaddyPower by offering 2/1 on the Tories, and again has Labour as 9/4 outsiders.

William Hill has the best all-round odds, though not dissimilar to Ladbrokes and PaddyPower. It currently has Lib Dems as 11/10 favourites, with shorter odds on the Tories at 7/4, and Labour 5/2.

Finally, online bookmakers Bet365 have the Lib Dems at 11/10, Tories at 15/8, and Labour 5/2.

So in summary it seems that, for now at least, the Liberal Democrats are the bookies’ favourites, with the Conservatives cantering along in second, and Labour bringing up the rear, trotting into third. If you do fancy a cheeky punt, but are unsure of the most favourable odds, your best bet would be Ladbrokes for the Lib Dems, and PaddyPower for the other parties.

Every now and then I’ll keep you posted on the latest odds, especially if there are any notable changes, but if you want to check for yourself, The Guardian has an online odds-checker. Betting is a sure fire way to lose money you don’t have, but it can make Peter Snow’s Swingometrical ramblings considerably more exciting!

Lib Dems vs Tories: who wins? You decide...

*Just in case you didn’t know, if you do put a smiley face in the little box then your vote won’t be counted, so think carefully before taking this drastically cute course of action!

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