They think it’s all over… And they’re right, it was, like, a week ago

Almost a week has passed since the results for Hampstead & Kilburn came through. It’s taken about this long for the adrenaline to drain from my body and my internal clock to tick tock its way back into shape after pulling an election all-nighter, but I’ve finally processed what has happened, and as the new coalition Cabinet concludes its first formal meeting, I feel ready to reflect on last week’s events.

One undeniable fact is that our part of North West London offered some of the most exciting battles of anywhere in the country. The new constituency of Brent Central was the only seat contested by two standing MPs: Sarah Teather of the Lib Dems and Labour’s Dawn Butler. It was a close run thing, but it was the former who eventually won on the night – or the following morning, to be precise.

In Hampstead & Kilburn, despite all three major parties telling us that it was a two horse race between one or the other of them, it turned out to be the most exciting three-way election extravaganza of them all. Chances are, of course, that you already know the result, but just in case you’ve been visiting relatives on the planet Zorg – and I hear it’s nice this time of year – it was as follows: After some drama involving errant ballot boxes and an excruciating re-count in the wee hours of Friday morning, the nail-bitingly close result was that Glenda Jackson held her seat, defeating Tory challenger Chris Philp by a mere 42 votes. Ed Fordham ended up coming third, less than 900 votes off the pace which, in general election terms, is pretty darned close. So in the end, the bookies, the pundits – even the bloggers! – got it wrong. Alas! How I wish that I’d put a cheeky fiver on Glenda to win; I’d now be sipping mojitos on a beach in Cancun…

The irony is that whilst Glenda pipped Ed and Chris to the post here in Hampstead & Kilburn, it is these two whose parties now govern our green and pleasant land. (Forgive me, by the way, if that doesn’t seem ironic to you, but I attended the Alanis Morissette school of irony, you see).

So congratulations are in order to Glenda Jackson MP, but I’d like to extend these to all the candidates who stood here – except that BNP woman – for leading such vigorous and passionate campaigns. I’m sure this won’t be the last we hear of such historic figures as Chris, Ed, Tamsin, Bea et al. In politics terms they’re all still young’uns (ish), and I for one look forward to seeing what larks they get up to in the future.

Out with the old, in with the new

Guest Blog: Why I´m voting for…

Many people will be leaving the choice of who they vote for up until the last minute, when they set foot inside the polling booth itself, but others will have long–since decided. This series of guest blogs aims to provide an insight into the minds of these decisive party champions. And by the way, it’s not preachy, it’s politics.

Kicking the series off is Jack Holroyde, 24, who lives on the South Kilburn Estate, and whose (self proclaimed) “defection to party politics” seems to have accompanied his move to the area from Twickenham. Jack is a keen supporter of the Lib Dems, recently helping Ed Fordham on the campaign trail.

Why I´m voting for… Ed Fordham and the Liberal Democrats.

Winning here... Jack Holroyde

It would be so easy to talk about Nick Clegg’s performance in debate. About Labour’s failings, Cameron’s ‘dinosaurs in the closet’, his ‘Big Society’ assumptions, or about Brown’s surveillance state.

I could say, vote X, get Y.
Or vote Y, to keep X out.
Or vote Z, in order to get Y an overall majority in the commons.
Or being told that X is rubbish, so I HAVE to vote Y.

Truth is, I’m utterly sick of being told who to vote for and what’s wrong with ‘X party’.

I’ll tell you why I am voting Liberal Democrat, and why I am proud that Ed Fordham is the LibDem candidate.

I won’t insult your intelligence by explaining minutae of national policy – I’ll allow you to draw your own conclusions from the manifesto.

I’m going to vote for the LibDems because I believe that the way things are is NOT how they need to be. Because I believe in fairness – and I believe that the party can deliver that.
I’m going to vote for the LibDems because I believe that an MP works for their people – and never again should we see the corruption and greed we’ve uncovered over the last few years.

Working with Ed is a pleasure.
I’m going to vote for him because I believe that he can make being his constituent a pleasure.

When I saw Ed learning a speech in Somali, so that doors could be opened and a hand extended to this deeply insular minority group, I knew I was working with a man who would always stand up for those with little public voice – not just to win votes, but to ensure social cohesion, freedom from ignorance, conformity or fear.

I know that Ed will work tirelessly for this community, that he will extend a hand where it needs extending, that when he sees intolerance, he will highlight it, try to understand it, and work to make things better – not out of oneupmanship, but out of a desire to do some good for those that need it most.

I will vote for Ed Fordham of the Liberal Democrats because I have hope.

I hope that we can have long lasting, sustainable economic growth, based on sound principles and an understanding of the need to tackle climate change – fast.
I hope that people disengaged from politics will see it reformed – fast.
I hope that children will have a fair start at school.

I hope that the people of Hampstead & Kilburn can see for themselves what a hardworking, local MP can do for them – and that on May 6th, they will give Ed Fordham of the Liberal Democrats a mandate to represent them in Parliament.

A very Hampstead & Kilburn hustings: the low-down

My first hustings, and it was  everything I’d hoped it would be. Politicians taking shots at eachother, excitable audience members shouting and jeering, and an overwhelming sensation of ‘this sure beats sitting at home watching TV’. Little did I know, Inside the Perfect Predator was being broadcast on BBC1 – thank goodness for iPlayer.

The Rosslyn Hill Unitarian Chapel, in association with the Ham & High, played host to the event. Around 150 people squeezed into the hall, sitting in neat rows facing the altar. At the top table were seated, from the audience’s left to right, Glenda Jackson MP (Labour), Chris Philp (Conservatives), the Chairman (that’s right, I never bothered finding out his name), Ed Fordham (Lib Dems), Magnus Nielsen (UKIP) and Bea Campbell (Green). Tamsin Omond was given a kind of ‘seat of honour’ in the front row of the audience, but was not involved in the BBC Question Time-style debate. The questions were selected in advance, and each candidate was given the opportunity to answer in turn, with the odd rambling, opinionated contribution from members of the audience.

Proceedings got off to a friendly enough start, the candidates milling about near the  top table, chatting freely amongst themselves. The gentlemen were all looking very smart, with a full complement of dark suits, buttoned-up shirts and ties. A more interesting range from the ladies, with Glenda sporting a smart black jacket over a little black dress, Tamsin mixing it up with a trouser suit, complete with zip-up hoody and t-shirt. Bea was wearing the evening’s red-carpet miss (actual carpet colour: blue), with a pink t-shirt over a long sleeved grey number, clashing nicely with her massive green rosette.

The candidates’ answers to the first question, which happened to be on Darling’s budget, set the tone exactly for the rest of the evening. In fact, I could have walked out after those first 15 minutes with the same impression I was left with at the end of what turned out to be over 2 hours worth of party-politicking debate. Bea Campbell’s main point was that instead of building warships, we should be building wind farms. And a fair point too perhaps, but if the Greens are really hoping to make waves in order to obtain power (little hydro-electric joke for you there), they’ll have to convince the wider public that there’s more to their policies than just glorified hand-holding and tree-hugging.

Magnus Nielsen and/or Christopher Lloyd

Magnus was definitely my favourite speaker, though by far the worst candidate. He spent most of his question-answering time explaining that he didn’t have enough time to answer the questions. As the UKIP candidate, everything was Europe’s fault, predictably, from sleaze and corruption to debt and recession. Want to improve the NHS? Get out of Europe. Or you could just read his new book, which he was keen to let us know is out soon. Magnus is like that great-uncle who sits in his chair in the corner, commanding attention, shouting a lot, and making boldly inappropriate comments. He also reminded me of Christopher Llyod’s character in Back to the Future. If his party’s policies weren’t so intolerant, unsubtle and weak, someone might even vote for him.

Glenda, Chris and Ed: the big three

As for the big three, they each did their parties proud. Glenda tended to talk around the questions a bit, eventually settling on overwhelming support for the party line. Everyone seemed to overlook the fact that she got MMR mixed up with MRSA at one point, but this was hopefully just a slip of the tongue, as opposed to a real lack of knowledge. She spoke fluently and authoritatively on most subjects, but owing more, I imagine, to her experience as a public speaker than to her depth of understanding. Highlight: when an audience member exclaimed that they had never seen Glenda shopping in Hampstead, the Labour MP was quick to come back with, “Well I’ve never seen you before, how do I know you live here?” Much to the audience’s amusement.

Ed Fordham is a man who has done his homework. On the matter of the transport disruptions that plague our constituency on the weekends, Ed produced a statement read out in parliament in 1999 supporting the PPP scheme, by the then transport minister, Glenda Jackson, with Ed saying to the incumbent, “the reality is, you stitched us up.” Queue applause. Nor did he shy away from taking digs at Tory candidate Chris Philp. When the latter proudly boasted that in his four years as councillor he had never claimed expenses, Ed pointed out that as a local councillor, he did not have the ability to do so anyway. Essentially, he hadn’t claimed expenses because he wasn’t able to do so. Some of his remarks could have been construed as being a little catty, and Chris certainly didn’t appreciate being accused of being disingenuous as to the origin of his campaign funds. Having said that, Ed comes across as a mature candidate who understands the matters at hand and the concerns of his (potential) constituents.

I was equally impressed by Chris Philp. If I had to sum-up his performance last night in a single word: smooth. He looked the part, he sounded the part, he acted the part. If you were voting based on a candidate’s individual merits, as opposed to the party they represented, you could do much worse than to vote for Chris. He spoke with confidence in a matter-of-fact tone, coming across as prepared, but not rehearsed. The only candidate in his introductory speech to thank the Chapel for hosting the event, he was charming at times and, when he needed to be, impassioned too. In a heated moment, on campaign funding, Chris brought up a dodgy unreturned donation to the Lib Dems’s coffers of £2m, saying, “maybe you’ll find it down the back of your sofa, Ed.”

The best question of the night was posed by Tamsin Omond, who asked the candidates to name their own party’s faults, and how they hoped to remedy these. This struck me as a fantastic opportunity for the candidates to give off an impression of openness and honesty, and to demonstrate their individuality. Unfortunately, none of them made the most of it. Chris gave it a shot by saying that in ’97 he’d voted Lib Dem, but his party had moved on since then. Glenda probably came closest, bemoaning the lack of female candidates being presented by Labour in the party’s safe seats. Tamsin told me that she had found the overall experience quite depressing, with the candidates’ focus seeming to be on the negative elements of their rivals’ campaigns, as opposed to the really positive aspects of their own.

Hampstead & Kilburn is one of the most marginal seats in the country, a fact recognised by all the candidates. Interestingly, the audience – excluding pockets of supporters for each candidate – was representative of this fact. I didn’t get the impression that any particular candidate had more support than any other and, encouragingly, well-argued points received equally generous and vehement rounds of applause, regardless of who had put them forward.

The bookies still have Ed down as favourite, with Ladbrokes offering the best odds of 5/4. At Paddypower, you can now get 2/1 on Chris, and 5/2 on Glenda winning. Ladbrokes are now also offering 25/1 on Tamsin and her Commons party, with Magnus and Bea joint-outsiders at 100/1.

There’s everything still to play for, and the candidates will all be upping their games in the run up to May 6th, with Glenda (ominously) announcing that we’ll be seeing a lot more of her in the coming weeks. More events like last night’s hustings are due to take place in the run up to the election, and I’d urge you to come along to one for yourself, especially if you’re a floating/undecided voter. They offer a great chance to see the candidates for yourself, up-close and personal.

But I’m afraid I couldn’t pick you a winner – not based on last night’s performances anyway – not from all the way up here, on this fence that I’m sitting on…

The results show

The lines are closed and the votes have been counted. Please don’t phone in now – you may still be charged.

NW6: the poll was a rip-roaring success, with record numbers of voters turning out to exercise their democratic right. Everyone, I’m sure, has been awaiting the results of this most important of polls with bated breath. The results may prove to be entirely inconsequential, and have literally no effect on anything – ever – but it’s been jolly good fun, hasn’t it?

The results are presented as a percentage of the total number of voters (236, over a 24hour period):

NW6: the poll

I’ll be honest, I was rather surprised to see these results. I believe it’s what you might call a landslide. So, what does this tell us about the upcoming election? The answer: absolutely nothing. Obviously. I can tell you that at about 10pm last night, the results were looking a lot more like you might have expected them to: Tories on 39%, Labour on 38% and Lib Dems on 19%. Still, neither yesterday’s interim nor these final results reflect either what I’ve been saying, what the bookies have been suggesting, or what the parties themselves have been proclaiming. With the notable exception, of course, of Chris Philp’s Conservatives.

Some important details to bear in mind about these results: Although I’m quite pleased with 236 people having voted, this doesn’t even come close to the tens of thousands of voters who will turn out come election day. Needless to say, most of the people who voted are likely based in NW6, though the constituency is made up of several postcodes. It’s also worth pointing out that even though, theoretically, people shouldn’t have been able to vote more than once from the same computer, in reality, it wouldn’t have been particularly complicated to do so. But I’m sure nobody would suggest that the Tories cheated their way to victory…

Chris Philp MP - an artist's impression

Then there is the role of Twitter; I half-expected the candidate with the most followers (Ed Fordham, 751) to win, as all the PPCs (except Beatrix and Magnus) retweeted or linked through to the poll. Chris Philp only informed his 425 Twitter followers this morning, but was by that stage already well in the lead. Mike Katz, of the local Labour party (91 followers), was the first to retweet the message, and this may have helped Labour to take their (very) early lead, but ultimately they didn’t have enough backing. If this poll is anything to go by – which it isn’t – then it looks like Tamsin has some way to go in getting the new media-consuming youth to back her campaign.

You can all look forward to more such polls as the election approaches, hopefully with an equally surprising and meaningless set of results. Do you feel that NW6: the poll is an accurate reflection of public opinion? Or is it just that everyone who reads this blog is a Conservative-supporting tweet-obsessive? Answers on a postcard. Or in the comment box below.

Interview: Chris Philp

Social networking sites are strange and wonderful things. But whereas for you and I they’re a way of keeping in touch with friends, or promoting our truly excellent blogs, for the modern politician, they’re a key campaign feature. They provide a quick and easy way to engage with (potential) constituents, addressing their concerns in an instant, and allow the dissemination of campaign messages around the clock. Facebook it was that helped me set up an interview with Ed Fordham. Then Twitter, somewhat unexpectedly, brought me tidings from one Chris Philp, Conservative PPC for Hampstead & Kilburn. Chris had read the interview with his Lib Dem rival and felt a little aggrieved by some of Ed’s comments.  For balance, he asked, would I like to interview him? For balance, I agreed.

The Wet Fish Cafe on West End Lane played host to our meeting. Chris had called to warn that he would be late. He arrived before I did. Throughout the interview, he sat comfortably on the other side of our small table by the wall, legs crossed and top two buttons undone on his tie-less shirt. We drank tea.

Chris Philp

Chris is a man prepared. All my questions, be they on policy, background, campaigning or anything else, were answered quickly, eloquently and with confidence. He has an impressive grip on facts and figures, which he can pull out to back up any of his points. I often felt, however, that he was drawing on a mental database of stock answers for anticipated questions. I don’t hold this against Chris – if you’re asked similar questions everyday, you’ll give similar answers – but it did give proceedings a more ostensibly on-the-record feel than I would have liked.

Still, Chris spoke openly about his motivations for entering the political sphere; a few years a go now, his father was taken to hospital, and whilst there contracted the MRSA ‘super-virus’. This was his first insight into what he saw as being the Labour government’s (flawed) centralised approach to running public services, and it led to his becoming involved in campaigning, eventually joining the Conservative party and being elected as a councillor for Camden. He was forthwith in revealing that he did not vote Conservative in 1997, as the previous Tory government had not properly funded public services. He now believes, however, that although these  services are better funded than they once were, they are poorly run, and it will take a Conservative government to fix this.

Let’s not forget the reason for the interview: the accusations made against him during my prior interview with his election rival, Ed Fordham. Chris seemed genuinely shocked by Ed’s comments, saying, “I thought [his remarks] were just totally inaccurate, intemperate and uncalled for, and not the kind of thing you would expect from someone who is putting themselves forward for serious office.”

On the electoral figures used by the Lib Dems that put them 474 votes away from victory, Chris said, “the figures that [Ed Fordham] likes quoting are five years old, which he probably forgot to mention, and are based on a sort of theoretical projection. The figures that we look at are recent and are based on real votes. It annoys me, frankly, when the Lib Dems use these very old notional figures, because I don’t think it gives an accurate reflection of the mathematics of the seat.”

During the 'save the Royal Free's stroke unit' campaign

As for the accusation that the Tories campaigned to save a stroke unit at the Royal Free that was never actually under threat, Chris obviously disagrees. He tells me that the Royal Free was recognised as having one of the best emergency stroke units in the country, and that the ‘door-to-needle’ time at both the old facility in Hampstead and the new acute unit at UCLH is exactly the same, at 35 minutes, and thus for most people the journey time to the hospital will now be greater, but for no added benefit. He adds, “the Lib Dems were wrong to fail to support the Royal Free’s emergency stroke unit, and I think the reason that Ed used such intemperate and frankly immature language was he knows that he’s on the wrong side of the issue.”

The one thing that surprised me over the course of the interview was Chris’ assertion that the election in Hampstead & Kilburn would be a two horse race between the Tories and Labour, writing the Lib Dems off entirely – bearing in mind that the new mystery candidate had not yet put up posters in Hampstead. This is despite the Lib Dems being the bookies’ favourites, and despite the re-drawn constituency boundaries potentially favouring them. This is a key marginal seat, of great importance to all the major parties, hence the newsletters, billboards and flyering from all comers. But for Chris there is only one choice: “If you want to get rid of Gordon Brown, then voting Conservative is the only way to do that, both here and nationally.”

The new Hampstead & Kilburn constituency

Chris insists that his campaign is not personal, but some of his comments show a clear understanding that this is a contest, and there’s no use in playing nice: “One thing that Ed probably didn’t find time to mention is that he’s targeting different communities with different messages.” Chris tells me that he is referring to the fact that Lib Dems in Kings Cross have sent out leaflets iterating Nick Clegg’s calls for the disarmament of Israel, a ‘rogue state’, whereas Ed Fordham has distributed leaflets in Hampstead, printed partially in Hebrew, saying that he’s a friend of Israel. Chris appears to challenge Ed, saying, “he hasn’t stood up and said Nick Clegg is wrong on the issue, which if he was serious is what he would do.”

Chris generally comes across as relaxed, but reticent. He doesn’t give as much away as I’d like him to. I’m not saying that (only) because I want more juicy blog-fuel, but because it’s refreshing to hear what someone really feels. Still, he seems to be smart, keen and competent. Also, he’ll be pleased to hear, he comes across as a nice guy. But this is a campaign that neither he nor Ed Fordham can afford to run on personality alone, with Glenda Jackson still in it for Labour, and a yet to be revealed mystery contender joining the race on February 25th.

One thing is certain: things are spicing up on the Hampstead & Kilburn election trail – stay tuned!

Interview: Ed Fordham

Monday afternoon at Ciao Ciao on Kilburn High Road, and the staff are enjoying some quiet time between lunch and dinner. Sitting across the table from me is Ed Fordham, a regular here, and looking quite at home, sitting back, relaxed and enjoying the occasional sip of his cappuccino. Ed is the Liberal Democrat parliamentary candidate in the new Hampstead and Kilburn constituency, and he certainly looks the part: cheery-faced, smartly suited, and with his oft ringing but, for politeness’ sake, ne’er answered blackberry sitting beside his coffee on the table. Likes: diversity. Dislikes: Tories.

Ed Fordham

He stood for election unsuccessfully in 2005, but now, only a few months away from the next general election, and with the constituency boundaries having been redrawn in the Lib Dems’ favour, Ed is quietly confident about his chances: “I’ve been involved with the Lib Dems for nearly 20 years, and we’ve never run a campaign on this scale, that wasn’t a by-election. For the first time in a century here in Hampstead and Kilburn, the Lib Dems are at risk of winning.”

There are, however, two large obstacles in his way. The first is current Labour MP for Hampstead & Highgate, Glenda Jackson, who has been MP here since 1992. Ed is conscious of not making this a personality-based election campaign, as Jackson is a household name and two-time Oscar winning actress. However, she is also the least active MP representing a London constituency. Ed, on the other hand, hopes to be an active voice for the community.

“I hand sign about five thousand letters a week, and when people pop up on Facebook or Twitter, I reply.” Keeping the conversation between himself and his potential constituents open is crucial to the future success of his campaign. Former US governor of Vermont, Howard Dean, compared Fordham’s use of social networking sites, and his understanding of the importance of grass roots politics, to one Barack Obama. I think that’s about as far as the comparison could go, but Ed was understandably flattered nonetheless.

Kilburn’s very own Barry O’Bama

The second obstacle is the campaign of Tory candidate Chris Philp. According to projections by Rallings & Thrasher, the Lib Dems would only need 474 votes to defeat the Labour party in Hampstead & Kilburn. The conservatives are way down in third, some five thousand votes behind. However, the Tories are using figures from the Ken vs Boris mayoral elections, an entirely different contest, which put them ahead of Labour and Lib Dems both. Ed sees this as a final role of the dice for the Tories:  “There is a level of panic in the Tory campaign the likes of which I’ve never seen before. I think they’re pushing their luck and they’re panicking, using figures which favour them.”

Ed reckons that the Lib Dems’ strong presence on local councils along with Sarah Teather having consolidated her 2003 by-election victory in Brent East sends a message to voters, “I’m going to point out that there’s a pretty high chance that if they vote Lib Dem, they’ll get a Lib Dem MP.”

And what if they do? There’s a great deal of speculation at the moment on what would happen in the event of a hung Parliament. On his hopes for his party at the coming election, with a wry smile, Ed acknowledges, “the only answer I’m probably supposed to give is a Lib Dem majority. But if no party has a majority, then there will be intensive negotiations based, I hope, on policy, as in Scotland, where the Lib Dems hammered out an agreement with the Scottish Labour Party.”

But on a personal level, he makes it quite clear where he stands: “ABC – anyone but Conservatives.” When discussing the Conservatives, Ed’s usually unwavering smile fades, “I suppose that’s the driving force in getting me started in the first place. I saw what they did to my own community and my own family when I was growing up, which I haven’t really forgiven them for…”

The Lib Dems are currently seeking legal advice on one particular element of the Tory campaign, namely claims made by Chris Philp’s newsletter that the Lib Dems supported the closure of the Royal Free Hospital’s stroke unit. Onto his second cappuccino, and Ed Fordham is now visibly annoyed. “I completely take issue with the cheeky sodding Tories saying we supported the closure of the stroke unit. The stroke unit was never under threat of closure.” In a decision supported by clinicians and medical staff, a new acute stroke unit will be opening at UCLH instead of the Royal Free, but no changes are being made to the existing stroke unit in the Hampstead hospital. Ed feels strongly about this, “so when the Tories say ‘save the stroke unit’ – there’s nothing to save. I think [Philp] is being a disingenuous, lying, cheating toad – he’s just trying a cheap trick.”

And what if he should defeat the Oscar winner and the toad? After a moment’s thought he answered, “if I win, I’ll want to walk down Kilburn High Road saying thank you to everyone, and go to my favourite Indian restaurant for a meal with my mates. If I lose, I’ll want to hide. I’ll grow a beard and go work on a farm in India.”

So, all you floating voters, come election day, if nothing else, consider whether you want Ed to support a local business by dining in Kilburn, or add to his carbon footprint by flying to India to sample the real thing…