The results show

The lines are closed and the votes have been counted. Please don’t phone in now – you may still be charged.

NW6: the poll was a rip-roaring success, with record numbers of voters turning out to exercise their democratic right. Everyone, I’m sure, has been awaiting the results of this most important of polls with bated breath. The results may prove to be entirely inconsequential, and have literally no effect on anything – ever – but it’s been jolly good fun, hasn’t it?

The results are presented as a percentage of the total number of voters (236, over a 24hour period):

NW6: the poll

I’ll be honest, I was rather surprised to see these results. I believe it’s what you might call a landslide. So, what does this tell us about the upcoming election? The answer: absolutely nothing. Obviously. I can tell you that at about 10pm last night, the results were looking a lot more like you might have expected them to: Tories on 39%, Labour on 38% and Lib Dems on 19%. Still, neither yesterday’s interim nor these final results reflect either what I’ve been saying, what the bookies have been suggesting, or what the parties themselves have been proclaiming. With the notable exception, of course, of Chris Philp’s Conservatives.

Some important details to bear in mind about these results: Although I’m quite pleased with 236 people having voted, this doesn’t even come close to the tens of thousands of voters who will turn out come election day. Needless to say, most of the people who voted are likely based in NW6, though the constituency is made up of several postcodes. It’s also worth pointing out that even though, theoretically, people shouldn’t have been able to vote more than once from the same computer, in reality, it wouldn’t have been particularly complicated to do so. But I’m sure nobody would suggest that the Tories cheated their way to victory…

Chris Philp MP - an artist's impression

Then there is the role of Twitter; I half-expected the candidate with the most followers (Ed Fordham, 751) to win, as all the PPCs (except Beatrix and Magnus) retweeted or linked through to the poll. Chris Philp only informed his 425 Twitter followers this morning, but was by that stage already well in the lead. Mike Katz, of the local Labour party (91 followers), was the first to retweet the message, and this may have helped Labour to take their (very) early lead, but ultimately they didn’t have enough backing. If this poll is anything to go by – which it isn’t – then it looks like Tamsin has some way to go in getting the new media-consuming youth to back her campaign.

You can all look forward to more such polls as the election approaches, hopefully with an equally surprising and meaningless set of results. Do you feel that NW6: the poll is an accurate reflection of public opinion? Or is it just that everyone who reads this blog is a Conservative-supporting tweet-obsessive? Answers on a postcard. Or in the comment box below.

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3 Comments

Filed under Politics, innit

3 responses to “The results show

  1. Hope the tories don’t win.

    Perhaps adding supperclubs in your side bar would be good…I run The Underground Restaurant in Kilburn.
    There is also Mama Lan’s in Cricklewood.

    • Richard Holloway

      Well done Chris. Glad that someone with actual real life experience outside the political bubble is on course to be our next MP.

  2. Matthew

    It’s not a random sample! So as you say, a bit meaningless, especially as don’t even know if only NW6/NW10 voters took part.

    Good article on polls with some examples of how random sampling beats enormous sample sizes every time…

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/2505

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