There’s been a fair bit of chatter on this blog recently from Lib Dem and Tory supporters (interestingly, not much Labour presence) as to whose election result-predicting figures are most accurate, who’s most likely to become Hampstead & Kilburn’s next MP, and who can throw a tennis ball the furthest. I may have made up that last one, but it would be fun to find out nevertheless…
At the end of the day, it’ll come down to what box all you lovely voters draw your smiley faces in.* But seeing as everyone likes a good bit of speculation, I thought I’d check out the latest predictions made by the real experts: the bookies. The odds quoted below are specific for the Hampstead & Kilburn constituency.
PaddyPower has the Lib Dems as even money favourites, with the Tories at 2/1, and Labour the outsiders at 5/2.
Ladbrokes ranks the three parties in the same order, but offers better odds on the Lib Dems at 11/10. It matches PaddyPower by offering 2/1 on the Tories, and again has Labour as 9/4 outsiders.
William Hill has the best all-round odds, though not dissimilar to Ladbrokes and PaddyPower. It currently has Lib Dems as 11/10 favourites, with shorter odds on the Tories at 7/4, and Labour 5/2.
Finally, online bookmakers Bet365 have the Lib Dems at 11/10, Tories at 15/8, and Labour 5/2.
So in summary it seems that, for now at least, the Liberal Democrats are the bookies’ favourites, with the Conservatives cantering along in second, and Labour bringing up the rear, trotting into third. If you do fancy a cheeky punt, but are unsure of the most favourable odds, your best bet would be Ladbrokes for the Lib Dems, and PaddyPower for the other parties.
Every now and then I’ll keep you posted on the latest odds, especially if there are any notable changes, but if you want to check for yourself, The Guardian has an online odds-checker. Betting is a sure fire way to lose money you don’t have, but it can make Peter Snow’s Swingometrical ramblings considerably more exciting!
*Just in case you didn’t know, if you do put a smiley face in the little box then your vote won’t be counted, so think carefully before taking this drastically cute course of action!